Japanese study immediately after the atomic bomb blast

[news]

I am reading a book "The nuclear express by Thomas Reed and Danny Stillman"
which makes some interesting claims dealing with the Japanese studies
immediately after the two nuclear blasts in Japan.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

At 8:16 a.m., Little Boy detonated over the Aioi Bridge in Hiroshima.
Destruction was beyond belief; it took well over twenty-four hours for the
Japanese government in Tokyo to come to terms with what had happened. On
August 8, the morning papers in Tokyo referred only to a 'new type of
bomb,” ....Those {Japanese} scientists and their associates correctly
identified the event as nuclear; they got the yield right by noting the
distance of power-line insulation burnoff from ground zero; and, by
examining bomb debris,2 they identified the lethal ingredient: U-235.
Unfortunately, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. The Japanese
scientists knew of the huge infrastructure needed to separate U-235 from
uranium metal. They had spent years trying to achieve this result, and thus
they concluded (correctly) that the United States could only have one such
weapon. By implication, Hiroshima was a one-shot demonstration. Too bad if
you lived there, but the Japanese Empire should not take the event too
seriously. The Americans could not have another U-235 A-bomb.

......

Nagasaki was hit by Fat Man. Working in real time now, the scientists got
the yield right, again based on insulation burnoff, but they found the bomb
debris to be quite different from Hiroshima it contained plutonium.
Japanese scientists had read of this material, and they understood large
quantities could only come from a nuclear reactor. They concluded (again
correctly) the Americans must have a plutonium-producing reactor in
operation. If there were one such weapon, there must be more because a
reactor can churn out plutonium at a prodigious rate. The likely message,
from scientists, through General Arisue, to the cabinet: 'Better take this
one seriously; better accede to American demands; there are probably more
plutonium bombs.”

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Does anyone have any comments about this?

[a425couple]

--- book "The nuclear express by Thomas Reed and Danny Stillman"

#1 > At 8:16 a.m., Little Boy detonated over the Aioi Bridge in
Hiroshima---.
#2 > Nagasaki was hit by Fat Man.

Does anyone have any comments about this?

Seems to me that what you wrote is quite valid.
Generally supported by wiki and the books I've read.

"Downfall" by Richard Franks (and to a lesser extent "Retribution"
by Max Hastings) goes into the effects these were having on
the meetings of Japan's War Cabinent. The predictions you
mention about #1 did encorage them.
After they heard about #2 explosion (Nagasaki) "Dawnfall"
(IIRC) would seem to indicate the Emperor was so 'shook up'
and disgusted by earlier predictions that he made his decision
probably before all your discussion or investigation on the #2
was completed, or relayed to Tokyo.

[w***@aol.com]

...."The nuclear express..." makes some interesting
claims dealing with...Japanese studies....after
the two nuclear blasts in Japan....{Japanese}
scientists...correctly identified the (Hiroshima) event
as nuclear...and...concluded (correctly) that the United
States could only have one such (U-235) A-bomb.
(At) Nagasaki ...they found the bomb debris to be quite
different from Hiroshima... it contained plutonium....
They concluded (again correctly) the Americans
must have ... more...

It would not have been surprising that Japanese
scientists knew exactly what type of bombs had been
dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki if, as has been
strongly suggested by two post-war sources, Japan
had been engaged in an A-Bomb program of its own.
The first source of such information was an article
which appeared in the "Atlanta Constitution" newspaper
as early as 1946 by David Snell, who, after the war, had
served as an agent for the 24th Criminal Investigation
Detachment in Korea.
Decades later, Snell's article was revived and quoted by
the second source, award-winning journalist, Robert K. Wilcox,
as having started with the flat-out statement: "Japan developed
and succesfully tested an atomic bomb three days before the
end of the war..(and) had destroyed unfinished atomic bombs,
secret papers, and her atomic bomb plant only hours before the
advance units of the Russian Army moved into Konan, Korea,
the site of the project."
Wilcox was inspired to further pursue the subject and
engaged in a lengthy period of research during which effort
he visited Japan and interviewed a number of Japanese
scientists who were alleged to have been involved in the atomic
project.
In 1995,Wilcox's research was summed up in his book
"Japan's Secret War" which supports (but does not prove)
the position that such a Japanese project did indeed exist but
has since been kept under wraps by both the U.S. and Japan
governments, presumably for geo-political reasons. If so, the
secrecy has certainly been kept more successfully than the Unit
731 revelations involving Japanese medical experiments on live
POWs during the war. But who know? As we are now in a
current era of "leaks," true or false, maybe someone else may
bring that story up again.

WJH

[Scott M. Kozel]

Post by w***@aol.com
Decades later, Snell's article was revived and quoted by
the second source, award-winning journalist, Robert K. Wilcox,
as having started with the flat-out statement: "Japan developed
and succesfully tested an atomic bomb three days before the
end of the war..(and) had destroyed unfinished atomic bombs,
secret papers, and her atomic bomb plant only hours before the
advance units of the Russian Army moved into Konan, Korea,
the site of the project."

Nobody noticed the explosion? How many kilotons?

[Mario]

Post by Scott M. Kozel

Post by w***@aol.com
Decades later, Snell's article was revived and
quoted by
the second source, award-winning journalist, Robert K.
Wilcox, as having started with the flat-out statement: "Japan
developed and succesfully tested an atomic bomb three days
before the end of the war..(and) had destroyed unfinished
atomic bombs, secret papers, and her atomic bomb plant only
hours before the advance units of the Russian Army moved into
Konan, Korea, the site of the project."

Nobody noticed the explosion? How many kilotons?

Any radioactivity in the area?

[William Hopwood]

Post by Scott M. Kozel

....Snell's article was...quoted by...award-winning journalist,
"Japan developed and succesfully tested an atomic bomb three
days before the end of the war..only hours before the
advance units of the Russian Army moved into Konan, Korea,
the site of the project."

Nobody noticed the explosion? How many kilotons?

In "Japan's Secret War," Wilcox quotes Snell's 1946 article as
having described the explosion in these excerpted words :
"It was August 10, 1945....To the north, Russian hordes
were spilling into Manchuria...in rhe cool predawn Japanese
scientistsk and engineers loaded "genzai bakudan" (Japan's
name for the A-bomb) aboard a ship at Konan. Off the coast,
near an islet in the Sea of Japan...frantic preparations were
underway.....Before dawn on August 12, a robot launch....
beached itself on the islet . Its passenger was genzai bakudan.
A clock ticked.
"The observers were 20 miles away...there was a burst
of light...blinding the observers who wore welders glasses. The
ball of fire was estimated to be 1000 yards in diameter. A
multicolored cloud of vapors boiled toward the heavens, then
mushroomed in the stratosphere....Genzai lbakudan in rhat
moment had matched the brilliance of rhe rising sun to the
east...Japan had perfected and successfully tested an atomic
bomb as cataclismic as those that withered Hiroshima and
Nagasaki."
And so the story went.

WJH

[Scott M. Kozel]

Post by William Hopwood
In "Japan's Secret War," Wilcox quotes Snell's 1946 article as
"It was August 10, 1945....To the north, Russian hordes
were spilling into Manchuria...in rhe cool predawn Japanese
scientistsk and engineers loaded "genzai bakudan" (Japan's
name for the A-bomb) aboard a ship at Konan. Off the coast,
near an islet in the Sea of Japan...frantic preparations were
underway.....Before dawn on August 12, a robot launch....
beached itself on the islet . Its passenger was genzai bakudan.
A clock ticked.
"The observers were 20 miles away...there was a burst
of light...blinding the observers who wore welders glasses. The
ball of fire was estimated to be 1000 yards in diameter. A
multicolored cloud of vapors boiled toward the heavens, then
mushroomed in the stratosphere....Genzai lbakudan in rhat
moment had matched the brilliance of rhe rising sun to the
east...Japan had perfected and successfully tested an atomic
bomb as cataclismic as those that withered Hiroshima and
Nagasaki."
And so the story went.

So there was a blinding flash of light and then a mushroom cloud, but
no other Japanese or non-Japanese people noticed it. OK ....

[The Horny Goat]

On Wed, 12 Jun 2013 18:16:36 -0400, "Scott M. Kozel"

Post by Scott M. Kozel

Post by William Hopwood
"The observers were 20 miles away...there was a burst
of light...blinding the observers who wore welders glasses. The
ball of fire was estimated to be 1000 yards in diameter. A
multicolored cloud of vapors boiled toward the heavens, then
mushroomed in the stratosphere....Genzai lbakudan in rhat
moment had matched the brilliance of rhe rising sun to the
east...Japan had perfected and successfully tested an atomic
bomb as cataclismic as those that withered Hiroshima and
Nagasaki."
And so the story went.

So there was a blinding flash of light and then a mushroom cloud, but
no other Japanese or non-Japanese people noticed it. OK ....

I have no doubt the Japanese physicists were far enough along in their
research to quickly understand precisely what had happened to
Hiroshima and Nagasaki but there's a big difference between that and
being able to build your own atomic bomb and my reaction to the above
story is pretty much the same as yours.

[m***@netMAPSONscape.net]

Post by William Hopwood
name for the A-bomb) aboard a ship at Konan. Off the coast,
near an islet in the Sea of Japan...frantic preparations were
underway.....Before dawn on August 12, a robot launch....
beached itself on the islet . Its passenger was genzai bakudan.
A clock ticked.
"The observers were 20 miles away...there was a burst
of light...blinding the observers who wore welders glasses. The
ball of fire was estimated to be 1000 yards in diameter. A
multicolored cloud of vapors boiled toward the heavens, then
mushroomed in the stratosphere....Genzai lbakudan in rhat
moment had matched the brilliance of rhe rising sun to the
east...Japan had perfected and successfully tested an atomic
bomb as cataclismic as those that withered Hiroshima and
Nagasaki."

Did Wilcox say why they didn't just send this thing somewhere useful, like
towards the US fleet, or put it on a truck and drive it toward Soviet
lines?

Seems like a waste of a perfectly good bomb for a resource-strapped nation,
about to be hammered on all sides...

Mike

[Rich Rostrom]

Post by w***@aol.com
Decades later, Snell's article was revived and quoted by
the second source, award-winning journalist, Robert K. Wilcox,
as having started with the flat-out statement: "Japan developed
and succesfully tested an atomic bomb three days before the
end of the war..

Which is complete fantasy.

The actual (well-documented) Japanese
atomic bomb project was a very small
effort. They never got close to a
working reactor, never produced any
enriched uranium or plutonium, and
never even had a design for a bomb.

[m***@netMAPSONscape.net]

Post by w***@aol.com

...."The nuclear express..." makes some interesting
claims dealing with...Japanese studies....after
the two nuclear blasts in Japan....{Japanese}
scientists...correctly identified the (Hiroshima) event
as nuclear...and...concluded (correctly) that the United
States could only have one such (U-235) A-bomb.
(At) Nagasaki ...they found the bomb debris to be quite
different from Hiroshima... it contained plutonium....
They concluded (again correctly) the Americans
must have ... more...

It would not have been surprising that Japanese
scientists knew exactly what type of bombs had been
dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki if, as has been
strongly suggested by two post-war sources, Japan
had been engaged in an A-Bomb program of its own.

Or if they had any nuclear physicists who, I dunno, did research with
Nils Bohr, or discovered U-237.

Or if the US announced that the bombs were atomic after they dropped
the Hiroshima bomb.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2008/08/05/national/physicist-knew-right-away-hiroshima-was-hit-by-a-bomb/#.UblDMxa8OHc

Post by w***@aol.com
The first source of such information was an article
which appeared in the "Atlanta Constitution" newspaper
as early as 1946 by David Snell, who, after the war, had
served as an agent for the 24th Criminal Investigation
Detachment in Korea.

And none of the Japanese scientists who would be involved in it seem
to have known about it, including Nishina.

Post by w***@aol.com
Decades later, Snell's article was revived and quoted by
the second source, award-winning journalist, Robert K. Wilcox,
as having started with the flat-out statement: "Japan developed
and succesfully tested an atomic bomb three days before the
end of the war..(and) had destroyed unfinished atomic bombs,
secret papers, and her atomic bomb plant only hours before the
advance units of the Russian Army moved into Konan, Korea,
the site of the project."

Um, why not use them against the US when it invaded? Or against the
advancing Soviets?

Post by w***@aol.com
Wilcox was inspired to further pursue the subject and
engaged in a lengthy period of research during which effort
he visited Japan and interviewed a number of Japanese
scientists who were alleged to have been involved in the atomic
project.

So, which scientists?

Post by w***@aol.com
In 1995,Wilcox's research was summed up in his book
"Japan's Secret War" which supports (but does not prove)
the position that such a Japanese project did indeed exist but
has since been kept under wraps by both the U.S. and Japan
governments, presumably for geo-political reasons. If so, the

Well, no, the existence of such a project was not kept under wraps,
and has been known for quite some time. Indeed, you state that Snell
wrote about it in a major newspaper in 1946, which is somewhat the
opposite of keeping things under wraps.

Post by w***@aol.com
secrecy has certainly been kept more successfully than the Unit
731 revelations involving Japanese medical experiments on live

Well, they didn't keep it under wraps very successfully. In Toland's
book, he describes Nishina's visit to Hiroshima, where he immediately
(relative term) recognized it as a uranium bomb "similar to the one
he had been trying to develop" and asked if he should continue work
on it.

So, how did they manage to build a successful bomb without the aid of
their best physicist?

Mike

[Chris Morton]

Post by w***@aol.com
Decades later, Snell's article was revived and quoted by
the second source, award-winning journalist, Robert K. Wilcox,
as having started with the flat-out statement: "Japan developed
and succesfully tested an atomic bomb three days before the
end of the war..(and) had destroyed unfinished atomic bombs,
secret papers, and her atomic bomb plant only hours before the
advance units of the Russian Army moved into Konan, Korea,
the site of the project."

I vaguely recall seeing a book on the subject in the 1980s during a
visit to the greatly lamented Krochs & Brentano's bookstore on Wabash
Ave. i Chicago. The robot launch thing sticks in my mind.

Regarding the veracity of the story, I have to go with others who say
that if the Japanese had had such a device, they'd have USED it. A
good place would have been on a Japanese submarine, sent either to
Ulithi (also target of a planned Seiran and human torpedo attack?), or
more interestingly, the surrender ceremony in Tokyo Bay. There's
probaby a good movie script lurking in the latter...

[S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de]

Post by news
I am reading a book "The nuclear express by Thomas Reed and Danny Stillman"
which makes some interesting claims dealing with the Japanese studies
immediately after the two nuclear blasts in Japan.

(snip very good stuff)

Post by news
Does anyone have any comments about this?

At first it all sounds plausible. But to get fast (2 days?) the U-235
or Pu measurements was not an easy task then. How was it done? How was
the sampling done? The US had a sniffer program since 1943 over Germany.
With such a program things could be done fast. But I`m not aware Japan
had one. At least they got no warning that way by Trinity. Had the
Japanese at least a task force ready or an action plan for a nuclear
attack?


## CrossPoint v3.12d R ##