Discussion:
Sedan 1940
(too old to reply)
S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
2013-07-03 13:17:58 UTC
Permalink
In a recent German TV documentary on the fall of France 1940 I heard some
news (to me). It seems the German Ardennen - Maas - Sedan operation was
not unthinkable or a sudden surprise. They reported in 1940 a commission
of the French(?) parliament did an investigation of the area. (Why? Was
there public discussion of it then?) They inspected the fortifications
and the (rated poor) quality of the troops there. They concluded that a
German breakthrough at Sedan is possible. It was called the "Tedinscher"
commission in German sound language. Maybe it was like "Tiddenger" in
English.

Anyone knows its real name and history?

I know the present explanation of the events around Sedan 1940. But was
there ever an article or book that explained it by treason?


## CrossPoint v3.12d R ##
Emmanuel Gustin
2013-07-06 23:13:18 UTC
Permalink
His name was Pierre Taittinger (later a famous producer of champagne),
and he indeed wrote the report of a French parliamentary committee that
had visited the front. That report highlighted the weakness of the defenses
in the Sedan region. He was not alone in this: General Corap, commander
of the 9th Army north of Sedan, sent frequent requests for
reinforcements. But general Huntziger of the 2nd Army, who probably felt
that Taittinger's criticism targeted him, denied that his front was too weak.
Huntziger nevertheless had his men constructing a lot of fortifications in
his sector.

I don't know what you think the "present explanation" is. Actually nobody
seriously thought, in 1940 or later, that an Army could not get through the
Ardennes: The geography with its rolling plateau and deeply cut rivers is
difficult, but not impassible, and the region had seen significant fighting in
earlier wars. The French command did believe that their bank of the
Meuse, which is higher than the other, was a good natural defensive
position that could be held by the second-line forces of the 2nd and 9th
armies. At least for a while, and against the expected (at most)
secondary attack. In this they may have been right, but they were wrong
in not expecting a major attack in this sector.

However, conventional military thinking never assumed that the enemy
could not breach a defensive line at all: The attacker has, after all, the
advantage of being able to concentrate his forces. The real expectation
in a passive sector like this was that the defenders would delay an
enemy advance as long as they could, then retreat fighting while
the HQ sentreinforcements to stabilize the line and counter-attack.
It was expected that the enemy advance would be only as fast as the
infantry could march and supplies could be brought in, so there would
be time. The real problem was that the Meuse was crossed by a strong
mobile combined-arms force that was willing to take the risk of a fast
advance with open flanks: The French HQ did send reinforcements,
but too little, too late, and to the wrong place.
S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
2013-07-10 13:25:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Emmanuel Gustin
His name was Pierre Taittinger (later a famous producer of champagne),
and he indeed wrote the report of a French parliamentary committee that
had visited the front. That report highlighted the weakness of the defenses
in the Sedan region. He was not alone in this: General Corap, commander
of the 9th Army north of Sedan, sent frequent requests for
reinforcements. But general Huntziger of the 2nd Army, who probably felt
that Taittinger's criticism targeted him, denied that his front was too
weak. Huntziger nevertheless had his men constructing a lot of
fortifications in his sector.
I don't know what you think the "present explanation" is. Actually nobody
seriously thought, in 1940 or later, that an Army could not get through the
Ardennes: The geography with its rolling plateau and deeply cut rivers is
All accounts I ever read said the French HQ thought a major attack through
the Ardennes would be impossible.
Post by Emmanuel Gustin
difficult, but not impassible, and the region had seen significant fighting
in earlier wars. The French command did believe that their bank of the
Meuse, which is higher than the other, was a good natural defensive
position that could be held by the second-line forces of the 2nd and 9th
armies. At least for a while, and against the expected (at most)
secondary attack. In this they may have been right, but they were wrong
in not expecting a major attack in this sector.
However, conventional military thinking never assumed that the enemy
could not breach a defensive line at all: The attacker has, after all, the
advantage of being able to concentrate his forces. The real expectation
in a passive sector like this was that the defenders would delay an
enemy advance as long as they could, then retreat fighting while
the HQ sentreinforcements to stabilize the line and counter-attack.
It was expected that the enemy advance would be only as fast as the
infantry could march and supplies could be brought in, so there would
be time. The real problem was that the Meuse was crossed by a strong
mobile combined-arms force that was willing to take the risk of a fast
advance with open flanks: The French HQ did send reinforcements,
but too little, too late, and to the wrong place.
The crucial point at the Ardennes operation was to get early knowledge
of the German force concentration and to attack this forces on the
crowded streets. To destroy them there or at least to slow them down.
They were in a perfect trap. The dense mass of tanks, cars, fuel- and
ammunition trucks with no way to left the road was a perfect bomber target.
Even fighter a/c could do that job, maybe even better. But the French HQ
did neither ground nor air recon.

There is the possibility and some evidence that the French HQ already
know of the crucial German attack and wanted to let it happen. In 1973
General Gustave Bertrand wrote his book "Enigma". Bertrand was the chief
of what we today would call the French "Ultra" organisation who broke and
read the Enigma for the French HQ. His book was more detailed and accurate
than Winterbotham's - but much less known because it was in French.
Deutsch wrote about Bertrand's book:

"Bertrand holds that no general headquarters in history had yet been so
thoroughly informed of enemy moves and intentions as the French
headquarters of Generals Gamelin and Weygand, but he implies that not
much was made of this."
Harold C. Deutsch: The Historical Impact of Revealing The Ultra Secret,
(Parameters, Journal of the U.S. Army War College) Approved for Release
by NSA on 10-26-2006, FOIA Case # 51639

What Bertrand wrote implies that Gamelin had prior knowledge of the intended
Ardennes breakthrough. But Gamelin ordered no recon efforts. What that
meant was straight out written by the "British Bertrand" Group Captain
(Colonel) Frederick William Winterbotham. He was one of the best
intelligence informed British, just after Churchill and Menzies. From the
book "The Ultra Secret" (1974) by F.W. Winterbotham:

"Despite all the information available, the full appreciation of where
the armoured thrust to come appears to have ignored by the French High
Command, and even when the French tank patrols finally met the German
tanks in the forest of Ardennes, there was still no air reconnaissance,
ordered. It seems almost impossible to believe that General Gamelin,
the French command-in Chief [generalissimo], had so staked his reputation
on his assessment that the Germans could not and would not attack through
the the Ardennes that he refused to change his mind or his strategy. It
is difficult to say more without accusing Gamelin of treason. To the
intelligent onlooker it appeared that he was deliberately allowing the
Germans a quick victory, whilst making some show of resistance in the
North."

Now with this words he actually accused Gamelin of treason. But Gamelin
was responsible for France and France may have faced something worse than
a German victory. Had he stopped the Ardennes attack Germany would not been
beaten but going on a war of attrition. Very much like in WW I and with the
same result for France: A victory with millions of death and even more
crippled. Gamelin's handling avoided that bigger diaster for France.

The 85000 French deaths in 1940 were like the losses of one typical offensive
in WW I. The Nazis and the German military saw them self openly as an anti
communist force and behaved like. Those murdered during the German occupation
were mainly Jews and Reds. Not in high regard by the French military either.
If Hitler promised something to Gamelin (I doubt it happened) he kept his
promise.

By that view the crucial point was neither Gamelin nor in 1940 but at the
9th October 1934. Then was "The Turning Point" like Allen Roberts suggested
in his 1970 book. In April 1934 French Foreign Minister Louis Barthou
announced that France "would look after its own security in whatever way
was necessary." What happened then is in diplomatic words described by
Winston Churchill (The Gathering Storm: The Second World War (2010), pp 95f):

"In her search for allies against the new Germany that had been allowed
to grow up, it was natural that France should turn her eyes to Russia
and try to re-create the balance of power which had existed before the
war. But in October a tragedy occurred.
...
[The Assassination of King Alexander I of Yugoslavia]
...
General Georges and M. Barthou stepped out of the carriage streaming
with blood. The General was too weak to move, but soon received medical
aid. The minister wandered off into the crowd. It was twenty minutes
before he was attended to. He was made to walk upstairs to the Prefect's
office before he could be given medical care; the doctor then applied
the tourniquet below [word "below" in italics] the wound. He had already
lost much blood; he was seventy-two. and he died in a few hours. This was
a heavy blow to French foreign policy, which under him was beginning
to take a coherent form. He was succeeded as Foreign Secretary by
Pierre Laval.
...
He [Laval] believed that France must at all costs avoid war, and he
hoped to secure this by arrangements with the Dictators of Italy and
Germany, against whose systems he entertained no prejudice."

Churchill and others suggested Barthou was not mortally wounded like
Alexander in the car but later killed by "medical treatment". He was
wounded in his right upper arm and after he was weakened by blood loss
he got a bandage at his lower arm to intensify bleeding. In 1934/35
France could invade Germany and get rid of the Nazi movement and the
danger of WW II. But the French policy shifted from anti Nazi to anti
communist and may still be there in 1940. That may better explain Sedan
1940 than Winterbotham's "treason" of Gamelin.



## CrossPoint v3.12d R ##
Bill
2013-07-10 15:06:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
But the French policy shifted from anti Nazi to anti
communist and may still be there in 1940. That may better explain Sedan
1940 than Winterbotham's "treason" of Gamelin.
The suggestion that France (both politically and militarily) decided
that their beloved country wasn't worth a protracted war and that to
spare France a blood letting they'd more or less give in to the Nazis
is beyond belief.

Have you ever met any Frenchmen? Never mind any French military
men...
Mario
2013-07-11 18:03:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
[The Assassination of King Alexander I of Yugoslavia]
...
General Georges and M. Barthou stepped out of the carriage
streaming with blood. The General was too weak to move, but
soon received medical aid. The minister wandered off into
the crowd. It was twenty minutes before he was attended to.
He was made to walk upstairs to the Prefect's office before
he could be given medical care; the doctor then applied the
tourniquet below [word "below" in italics] the wound. He
had already lost much blood; he was seventy-two. and he
died in a few hours. This was a heavy blow to French
foreign policy, which under him was beginning to take a
coherent form. He was succeeded as Foreign Secretary by
Pierre Laval.
...
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Churchill and others suggested Barthou was not mortally
wounded like Alexander in the car but later killed by "medical
treatment". He was wounded in his right upper arm and after he
was weakened by blood loss he got a bandage at his lower arm
to intensify bleeding.
Maybe the wound had damaged a vein rather than an arthery so
that could explain the medical treatment.

In veins the blood flow is towards the body.
--
_____
/ o o \
\o_o_o/
Rich Rostrom
2013-07-12 13:06:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
There is the possibility and some evidence that the French HQ already
know of the crucial German attack and wanted to let it happen.
In general, it is almost always wrong to ascribe to
secret and complex malice what can be easily explained
by obvious incompetence.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
In 1973 General Gustave Bertrand wrote his book
"Enigma". Bertrand was the chief of what we today
would call the French "Ultra" organisation who broke
and read the Enigma for the French HQ.
Bertrand was the head of the French (actually
Franco-Polish) codebreaking center, but it is
an exaggeration to compare it to the entire
ULTRA organization later set up by the British.

In early 1940, the Allies lacked the organization
for thorough analysis of Enigma decrypts, and also
a system for presenting the results to commanders
in a useful and timely manner.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
His book was more detailed and accurate
than Winterbotham's...
About the initial decryption. About the effective use
of Enigma decrypts over the next five years, I think
Winterbotham is the better source. Though he was
definitely sloppy about details, and perpetrated the
notorious "Coventry was sacrificed" myth.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
- but much less known because it was in French.
"Bertrand holds that no general headquarters in history had yet been so
thoroughly informed of enemy moves and intentions as the French
headquarters of Generals Gamelin and Weygand, but he implies that not
much was made of this."
Harold C. Deutsch: The Historical Impact of Revealing The Ultra Secret,
(Parameters, Journal of the U.S. Army War College) Approved for Release
by NSA on 10-26-2006, FOIA Case # 51639
What Bertrand wrote implies that Gamelin had prior
knowledge of the intended Ardennes breakthrough.
Bertrand has been noted as a very self-serving
character. Yes, the Allied commanders (including
GQG) received a lot of intelligence about German
movements. Bertrand's claim that Enigma decrypts
provided a complete picture that should have been
acted on is, well, self-serving. "If only they
had listened to _me_ (or my organization)..."

AIUI, Bertrand felt that his role in the breaking
of Enigma was never properly recognized. It was
Bertrand who suborned a German cipher clerk and
obtained operating manuals and sample messages.
But the French intelligence was not impressed and
showed no interest. Bertrand gave the documents
to the Poles, which enabled them to break Enigma
in the early 1930s. Bertrand thus came to think
of the break into Enigma as _his_ accomplishment,
which should have won the war in 1940.

But the picture was far more complex. Allied
commanders had lots of intelligence from lots
of sources. Enigma decrypts were the most
authoritative, but IIRC at that time the source
was not disclosed to the commanders; it was
code named BONIFACE, and they were led to
believe it was an agent in Germany, who might
or might not be right.

The Allies had the plans captured at Mechelen,
which showed the Germans intended a right wheel
through northern Belgium and Flanders. Those
plans were entirely authentic, and far more
complete than the fragmentary intercepts decrypted
by Bertrand's team and the British at Bletchley
Park. (The two groups worked together.)

Those decrypts indicated an attack in the Ardennes,
but also an attack further north, as expected.
That attack began at the same time as the German
main force entered the Ardennes, but it was not
obvious which was which. The northern attack
looked very much like an all-out effort - it
included the daring airborne capture of Fort
Eben Emael and the quick thrust into the
Netherlands, plus a drive by powerful panzer
forces towards Brussels and Antwerp.

It would have taken a strategist far more
perceptive and imaginative than Gamelin (or
anyone else in the French _or_ British high
command at that time) to figure out that the
northern attack was _not_ the main effort.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
"It seems almost impossible to believe that General Gamelin,
the French command-in Chief [generalissimo], had so staked his reputation
on his assessment that the Germans could not and would not attack through
the the Ardennes that he refused to change his mind or his strategy."
French military leadership in 1940 was hidebound,
old-fashioned.

It is no more impossible to believe that Gamelin's
error was incompetence than it is to believe the same
thing about Stalin's insistence in 1941 that the
Germans were not going to attack. Or Moltke's
insistence in 1914 that German strategy could not be
altered. Or McClellan's hysterical belief in 1862 that
he was heavily outnumbered by Lee. Or the Grand Master
of the Templars goading Guy de Lusignan to march the
Crusaders into a trap at Hattin.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
It is difficult to say more without accusing Gamelin of treason.
Now with this words he actually accused Gamelin of treason.
But Gamelin was responsible for France and France
may have faced something worse than a German
victory. Had he stopped the Ardennes attack Germany
would not been beaten but going on a war of
attrition. Very much like in WW I and with the same
result for France: A victory with millions of death
and even more crippled. Gamelin's handling avoided
that bigger diaster for France.
All French strategy in the 1930s was based on a replay
of WW I, except "doing it right this time". The French
never had a plan for defeating Germany except by
defeating German attacks and letting Germany exhaust
itself: a war of attrition, but avoiding the heavy
attacking casualties of WW I. Of course they also
planned to defeat the German flank march through
Belgium which had been ignored in 1914.

(In 1939, the French temporarily adopted a plan of
attacking while the German army was tied up in Poland,
but it doesn't appear that they were serious about it.)

Gamelin participated fully in France's strategic
planning all through that period. The suggestion here
is that he was sure France could not possibly win the
war except at an unacceptable cost, and therefore
decided it was better for France to be defeated. Yet
somehow he kept his belief secret from everyone.

What else is required? That he would have confidence
the German conquest and occupation of France would be
moderate; a very strange thing to believe about Hitler
and the Nazis.

And most importantly, that he somehow recognized that
the Ardennes attack could and would win a decisive
victory. This was something that no one else saw, other
than the most optimistic German panzer commanders. It
would mean that Gamelin somehow figured out how
effective German tactics would be, even before the
Germans did, and also recognized French weaknesses. And
that he deliberately kept silent about both. Which is
odd. because if mechanized warfare would win quickly
for Germany, it could win quickly for France - thus
obviating worries Gamelin might have had about a WW I
stalemate.

In short, there is no evidence of anything but plain
error, and plenty of reason to reject any other
explanation.
--
The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker.

http://originalvelvetrevolution.com
Alan Meyer
2013-07-13 02:17:51 UTC
Permalink
On 07/12/2013 09:06 AM, Rich Rostrom wrote:

<... thoroughly convincing analysis elided ...>
Post by Rich Rostrom
In short, there is no evidence of anything but plain
error, and plenty of reason to reject any other
explanation.
In _Lightning War: Blitzkrieg in the West_ by Ronald E. Powalski, the
author says that Gamelin spent the entire period of the German offensive
in his headquarters, with only limited understanding of what was
happening at the front. He did not even have a radio at headquarters.
When asked later why he didn't have a radio he replied, "What would I
have done with a radio?"

Conspiracies do sometimes happen. Sometimes they even succeed. But as
Post by Rich Rostrom
"In general, it is almost always wrong to ascribe to
secret and complex malice what can be easily explained
by obvious incompetence."
Alan
Rich Rostrom
2013-07-13 18:32:43 UTC
Permalink
As for the French cryptographic service "breaking and reading Enigma",
it didn't really happen.
Oh, yes, it did.
The French did receive, like the British,
the Polish gift of a basis for decrypting Enigma; but the Poles had
been defeated in 1938 when the security of Enigma was strengthened.
Yes, and the Polish cryptanalysts came to France
after Poland fell in 1939. They went to work under
Bertrand's supervision. This Franco-Polish center
worked in full cooperation with the British center
at Bletchley Park.

The joint effort rebroke Enigma in March 1940,
qnd in the next three months deciphered several
thousand messages. I don't know the exact proportions,
but the Franco-Polish group broke at least a
third of them. Each center passed all its results
(keys identified, decrypted messages) to the other
center until the French center had to be evacuated
in front of the German advance.
The French crytographic service (which remained active well after
the defeat of 1940) did break a number of other codes.
The Franco-Polish team reassembled at Uzes, in
unoccupied France, and resumed work against
Enigma as well as lesser German ciphers.
It is not known today exactly what they learnt from it...
The Uzes team deciphered messages about a German
spy operation in Marseille, which was a violation
of the 1940 terms. The Vichy authorities rounded
up the German agents and expelled them.
there is no reason to believe that the final attack
plan was included.
Enigma very rarely carried high-level strategic
orders or plans. The chief benefit of ULTRA (for
land warfare) was that it provided continual
authoritative information about German strength,
deployments, readiness, and expectations.
--
The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker.

http://originalvelvetrevolution.com
Geoffrey Sinclair
2013-07-14 14:32:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Post by Emmanuel Gustin
His name was Pierre Taittinger (later a famous producer of champagne),
and he indeed wrote the report of a French parliamentary committee that
had visited the front. That report highlighted the weakness of the defenses
in the Sedan region. He was not alone in this: General Corap, commander
of the 9th Army north of Sedan, sent frequent requests for
reinforcements. But general Huntziger of the 2nd Army, who probably felt
that Taittinger's criticism targeted him, denied that his front was too
weak. Huntziger nevertheless had his men constructing a lot of
fortifications in his sector.
I don't know what you think the "present explanation" is. Actually nobody
seriously thought, in 1940 or later, that an Army could not get through the
Ardennes: The geography with its rolling plateau and deeply cut rivers is
All accounts I ever read said the French HQ thought a major attack through
the Ardennes would be impossible.
Major attack, one that could drive deep into France was considered
hard enough to be rated impossible in most assessments. Starting
with outdated assessments of what modern forces could do. Apart
from the choke points in the Ardennes the tree cover makes it hard
to deploy formations for attacks. The ability of road transport to
supply an army was an unknown and underestimated. The Germans
were fortunate to be able to live off the land and have few major battles
between the Meuse and the Atlantic.

Then add the way the Meuse formed a good defensive line.

To overcome these obstacles the Germans substituted air power
for the artillery they had trouble deploying in the terrain. No one had
understood the effect of modern airpower on troops not trained to
deal with it and short of anti aircraft weaponry. The effects of the
air attacks were psychological as well as physical.

One the river defences were breached then it was a case of
traffic management.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Post by Emmanuel Gustin
difficult, but not impassible, and the region had seen significant fighting
in earlier wars. The French command did believe that their bank of the
Meuse, which is higher than the other, was a good natural defensive
position that could be held by the second-line forces of the 2nd and 9th
armies. At least for a while, and against the expected (at most)
secondary attack. In this they may have been right, but they were wrong
in not expecting a major attack in this sector.
However, conventional military thinking never assumed that the enemy
could not breach a defensive line at all: The attacker has, after all, the
advantage of being able to concentrate his forces. The real expectation
in a passive sector like this was that the defenders would delay an
enemy advance as long as they could, then retreat fighting while
the HQ sentreinforcements to stabilize the line and counter-attack.
It was expected that the enemy advance would be only as fast as the
infantry could march and supplies could be brought in, so there would
be time. The real problem was that the Meuse was crossed by a strong
mobile combined-arms force that was willing to take the risk of a fast
advance with open flanks: The French HQ did send reinforcements,
but too little, too late, and to the wrong place.
The crucial point at the Ardennes operation was to get early knowledge
of the German force concentration and to attack this forces on the
crowded streets.
That could be applied to all the WWII attacks, armies are road and
rail bound for the most part.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
To destroy them there or at least to slow them down.
They were in a perfect trap. The dense mass of tanks, cars, fuel- and
ammunition trucks with no way to left the road was a perfect bomber target.
The perfect trap included lots of tree cover, which made attacking the
Germans that much harder.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Even fighter a/c could do that job, maybe even better. But the French HQ
did neither ground nor air recon.
Firstly the allies did to reconnaissance, both in the air and on the
ground, the latter by both the French and Belgians, the Ardennes
move was assessed in the same way as the attacks on Holland
and Belgium, the Germans were moving to contact with the allied
forces. The fact there were lots of trucks in the Ardennes is much
more significant in hindsight given the number of trucks we now
know the Germans had.

Next comes the fact the allied fighters were outnumbered and
fighting to keep control of French airspace, mainly their airfields,
plus cover the allied advance to contact in Belgium. The fighter
doctrine of the time reserved them for air combat. The next
point is the Germans were well aware of the need to provide
air cover over the Ardennes and did so, the results of allied
air attacks in the area over the next few days would make
that clear. Finally the lack of allied airpower meant they really
could not interdict the area in any effective way. Not enough
bomber strength and doctrine to inflict heavy damage plus the
Germans had good AA defences, and the allies also lacked
the fighter strength to keep bombers from being intercepted.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
There is the possibility and some evidence that the French HQ already
know of the crucial German attack and wanted to let it happen.
In short the answer is no. And with conspiracy theories the lack of
evidence ends up as proof of two conspiracies, the original and
the cover up.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
In 1973
General Gustave Bertrand wrote his book "Enigma". Bertrand was the chief
of what we today would call the French "Ultra" organisation who broke and
read the Enigma for the French HQ. His book was more detailed and accurate
than Winterbotham's - but much less known because it was in French.
So the idea is Bertrand access to the archives in 1973? And he
claims they were reading German Enigma traffic in early 1940?

Without telling the British it seems.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
"Bertrand holds that no general headquarters in history had yet been so
thoroughly informed of enemy moves and intentions as the French
headquarters of Generals Gamelin and Weygand, but he implies that not
much was made of this."
Harold C. Deutsch: The Historical Impact of Revealing The Ultra Secret,
(Parameters, Journal of the U.S. Army War College) Approved for Release
by NSA on 10-26-2006, FOIA Case # 51639
So we have the intelligence people saying they did their job but
it was ignored.

Do the books mention the various reports the Germans would come
through Switzerland for example?

As of 10 January 1940 the German plans supported by Hitler assumed
a secondary attack through the Ardennes to support the flank of the
main attack through Belgium. On that day the courier plane with
significant parts of the plan landed in Belgium.

So that forced a rethink with Manstein's plan being used instead.
So the idea seems to be the allies found out about the plan about
as soon as the Germans, given exactly four months between 10
January and 10 May. Less the time for the German high command
to formulate the new plan and issue the orders.

So we turn to the idea Ultra was all seeing and knowing. We are
supposed to believe the Germans sent enough of the plan via
radio signals early enough for the allies to have a good idea of'
the plan.

Firstly what were the Germans doing using radio when they were
all still in Germany with plenty of land line communications? Next
why were they using radio for such high level plans? Finally we
know from the records allied penetration of German codes before
May 1940 was at fragment level thanks to the allies still having
significant gaps in their understanding, small resources and few
German signals to work with.

Ever thought the use of courier aircraft would be a solid clue
major, bulky, plans like the May 1940 offensive might just be
hand delivered?

In any case as wartime experience showed Ultra was a useful
aid, it was not all seeing and knowing and weakest at the
strategic level.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
What Bertrand wrote implies that Gamelin had prior knowledge of the intended
Ardennes breakthrough. But Gamelin ordered no recon efforts.
No reconnaissance efforts yet we have Winterbotham stating there
were French patrols in the Ardennes.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
What that
meant was straight out written by the "British Bertrand" Group Captain
(Colonel) Frederick William Winterbotham. He was one of the best
intelligence informed British, just after Churchill and Menzies. From the
"Despite all the information available, the full appreciation of where
the armoured thrust to come appears to have ignored by the French High
Command, and even when the French tank patrols finally met the German
tanks in the forest of Ardennes, there was still no air reconnaissance,
ordered. It seems almost impossible to believe that General Gamelin,
the French command-in Chief [generalissimo], had so staked his reputation
on his assessment that the Germans could not and would not attack through
the the Ardennes that he refused to change his mind or his strategy. It
is difficult to say more without accusing Gamelin of treason. To the
intelligent onlooker it appeared that he was deliberately allowing the
Germans a quick victory, whilst making some show of resistance in the
North."
Now with this words he actually accused Gamelin of treason.
Or alternatively of essentially being unable to cope with the Germans
doing something he did not plan for.

I gather the idea is Gamelin was fully up to date with the new doctrine
of mechanised warfare, the concept of the Panzer corps, with the
units operating to punch deep into the enemy rear rather than using
the tanks as infantry support? Can you show his writings on this?

Also other allied writings that thought in terms of the sort of plan
the Germans used in 1940 from before the actual attack.

Alternatively the Germans had come up with a new way of using
forces, including faster decision times, that opened up new
possibilities.

Winterbotham's book was the first written about Ultra, without the
benefit of many documents, and as a result has been shown to
contain significant errors. The above claim is one of them.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
But Gamelin
was responsible for France and France may have faced something
worse than a German victory. Had he stopped the Ardennes attack
Germany would not been
beaten but going on a war of attrition. Very much like in WW I and with the
same result for France: A victory with millions of death and even more
crippled. Gamelin's handling avoided that bigger diaster for France.
So Gamelin is an all knowing General, sure the German thrust through
the Ardennes would work but also sure any other Ardennes style attack,
using the Panzer forces to strike deep, would always fail, leaving the
situation like WWI. So he understands 1940 airpower could really
help break a line, and 1940 mobile formations could drive much deeper
than WWI formations before the attack could be contained, but was
sure that could only happen if the Germans attacked through the
Ardennes.

Want to explain this form of military genius?

How about Gamelin, say before the end of 1941, saying he was
trying to lose? How about him saying he wanted the French out
of the war or fighting with Germany?

How about him holding office in the Vichy Government?

How about him recording support for the Vichy Government?

How about him simply walking free under the Vichy Government?
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
The 85000 French deaths in 1940 were like the losses of one typical
offensive in WW I.
So one typical offensive in 1940 had the death toll of about one
typical offensive in WWI, is that the idea?
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
The Nazis and the German military saw them self openly as an anti
communist force and behaved like.
You mean the Nazi Soviet pact?
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Those murdered during the German occupation
were mainly Jews and Reds. Not in high regard by the French military either.
If Hitler promised something to Gamelin (I doubt it happened) he kept his
promise.
I do like the way an agreement is suggested and then discounted.
How about an agreement with Hitler and Gamelin for Hitler to lose
WWII with a minimum of French casualties? If one agreement is
possible so are others. Was Hitler a French or Soviet agent?
Note the word Socialist in the party name, zero evidence of such
agencies which makes them perfect conspiracy theory fodder.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
By that view the crucial point was neither Gamelin nor in 1940 but at the
9th October 1934.
So now we reach back and try and fit any event into the conspiracy.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Then was "The Turning Point" like Allen Roberts suggested
in his 1970 book. In April 1934 French Foreign Minister Louis Barthou
announced that France "would look after its own security in whatever way
was necessary." What happened then is in diplomatic words described by
"In her search for allies against the new Germany that had been allowed
to grow up, it was natural that France should turn her eyes to Russia
and try to re-create the balance of power which had existed before the
war. But in October a tragedy occurred.
...
[The Assassination of King Alexander I of Yugoslavia]
...
General Georges and M. Barthou stepped out of the carriage streaming
with blood. The General was too weak to move, but soon received medical
aid. The minister wandered off into the crowd. It was twenty minutes
before he was attended to. He was made to walk upstairs to the Prefect's
office before he could be given medical care; the doctor then applied
the tourniquet below [word "below" in italics] the wound. He had already
lost much blood; he was seventy-two. and he died in a few hours. This was
a heavy blow to French foreign policy, which under him was beginning
to take a coherent form. He was succeeded as Foreign Secretary by
Pierre Laval.
...
He [Laval] believed that France must at all costs avoid war, and he
hoped to secure this by arrangements with the Dictators of Italy and
Germany, against whose systems he entertained no prejudice."
So the idea is Laval remained Foreign Minister from 1934 to 1940?
The French gave up any attempt to form agreements with the USSR?
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Churchill and others suggested Barthou was not mortally wounded like
Alexander in the car but later killed by "medical treatment".
Or the wound was not considered that serious at the time, that the
treatment was correct depending on what the actual wound was,
that the minister compromised treatment chances by "wandering
off".

I do like the idea one man is such a key, even if it was years before
the actual events.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
He was
wounded in his right upper arm and after he was weakened by blood loss
he got a bandage at his lower arm to intensify bleeding.
Or people who were not there at the time have made an incorrect
report on the wound.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
In 1934/35
France could invade Germany and get rid of the Nazi movement and the
danger of WW II.
Actually the threat of WWII could not be removed simply by removing
the Nazis, given the history of Europe. Furthermore is the idea the
French would arrest all the Nazis then allow German politics to resume
as normal, and of course the Germans would all thank the French, they
would not resent the invasion and put together non Nazi plans for a
later war with France?
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
But the French policy shifted from anti Nazi to anti
communist and may still be there in 1940. That may better explain Sedan
1940 than Winterbotham's "treason" of Gamelin.
I gather this French policy survived the various changes in government,
and had the ability to force the army to deploy and behave like it did in
1940.

Alternatively the allied military was still thinking in terms of WWI, were
well behind the German practice of modern mobile warfare, including
the use of airpower, plus were well behind German strength in the air
resulting in a comprehensive defeat.

Geoffrey Sinclair
Remove the nb for email.
The Horny Goat
2013-07-15 13:20:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
The crucial point at the Ardennes operation was to get early knowledge
of the German force concentration and to attack this forces on the
crowded streets. To destroy them there or at least to slow them down.
They were in a perfect trap. The dense mass of tanks, cars, fuel- and
ammunition trucks with no way to left the road was a perfect bomber target.
Even fighter a/c could do that job, maybe even better. But the French HQ
did neither ground nor air recon.
Even 100 men with chain saws in the right place could have worked
wonders particularly if given suitable covering fire.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
The 85000 French deaths in 1940 were like the losses of one typical offensive
in WW I. The Nazis and the German military saw them self openly as an anti
communist force and behaved like. Those murdered during the German occupation
were mainly Jews and Reds. Not in high regard by the French military either.
If Hitler promised something to Gamelin (I doubt it happened) he kept his
promise.
If that story were even slightly true the American stereotype of the
French would be earned in spades. That's a huge claim and such a huge
claim requires huge evidence and I just don't see it.
Post by S***@argo.rhein-neckar.de
Churchill and others suggested Barthou was not mortally wounded like
Alexander in the car but later killed by "medical treatment". He was
wounded in his right upper arm and after he was weakened by blood loss
he got a bandage at his lower arm to intensify bleeding. In 1934/35
France could invade Germany and get rid of the Nazi movement and the
danger of WW II. But the French policy shifted from anti Nazi to anti
communist and may still be there in 1940. That may better explain Sedan
1940 than Winterbotham's "treason" of Gamelin.
That seems even more far-fetched than the ones posed by those who
consider the Duke of Windsor a traitor to Great Britain for his
actions in 1939-40. I just don't see it.

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