Rich Rostrom
2015-05-06 14:39:16 UTC
The Allied invasion of Normandy benefited from the
weather events of early June. The invasion was
initially scheduled for June 5, but was postponed
because of rough weather, which developed on June 4.
Fortunately, Allied meteorologists forecast
(correctly) that the rough weather would clear up
by June 6, and that there would be several days
of clear weather for the invasion and immediate
follow-up.
This had a serendipitous benefit to the Allies,
because the Germans thought that the bad weather
would prevent any invasion for at least a few
days. Rommel went home to Germany for his wife's
birthday; air and sea patrols in the Channel
were cancelled for the night of June 5-6.
Thus the invasion fleet assembled and sailed to
the French coast without being seen. The Germans
first became aware of the invasion when the ships
came in sight of the coast of Normandy.
There's a famous scene in _The Longest Day_, when
Major Pluskat of the German 352nd Division looks
out from his bunker as the morning fog blows away,
revealing the immense Allied armada, which opens
fire only minutes later.
My question is this: what if the weather had been
clear on June 4 and June 5? There seem to be three
obvious implications.
The invasion would have gone ahead on June 5, and
Rommel would not have gone on leave; these seems
minor.
Perhaps more important is that the Germans would
have sent out their regular patrols on the night
before the invasion.
Could these patrols have detected the invasion?
Or would Allied escorts have prevented them?
How would the reports from these patrols have been
received by German HQs - 7th Army, Army Group B,
OB West, OKW?
If the German HQs had received such warning of the
invasion, several hours earlier, would they have been
able to react in any effective way?
I doubt that such earlier warning would have affected
the overall outcome, but it could have affected the
course of the battle, on D-Day and afterward.
This also raises a question about the other major
opposed landings in Europe: HUSKY, AVALANCHE,
SHINGLE, and DRAGOON: which of _these_ invasions
could the Germans have detected in advance, and did
they in fact detect any of them in advance?
It should be noted that the Germans (and Italians,
for HUSKY) did not have very long to prepare against
HUSKY, AVALANCHE, or SHINGLE, and did not make the
defensive effort against DRAGOON that was made on
the Channel. Thus the Axis may not have resources
available to respond to warnings of these landings.
weather events of early June. The invasion was
initially scheduled for June 5, but was postponed
because of rough weather, which developed on June 4.
Fortunately, Allied meteorologists forecast
(correctly) that the rough weather would clear up
by June 6, and that there would be several days
of clear weather for the invasion and immediate
follow-up.
This had a serendipitous benefit to the Allies,
because the Germans thought that the bad weather
would prevent any invasion for at least a few
days. Rommel went home to Germany for his wife's
birthday; air and sea patrols in the Channel
were cancelled for the night of June 5-6.
Thus the invasion fleet assembled and sailed to
the French coast without being seen. The Germans
first became aware of the invasion when the ships
came in sight of the coast of Normandy.
There's a famous scene in _The Longest Day_, when
Major Pluskat of the German 352nd Division looks
out from his bunker as the morning fog blows away,
revealing the immense Allied armada, which opens
fire only minutes later.
My question is this: what if the weather had been
clear on June 4 and June 5? There seem to be three
obvious implications.
The invasion would have gone ahead on June 5, and
Rommel would not have gone on leave; these seems
minor.
Perhaps more important is that the Germans would
have sent out their regular patrols on the night
before the invasion.
Could these patrols have detected the invasion?
Or would Allied escorts have prevented them?
How would the reports from these patrols have been
received by German HQs - 7th Army, Army Group B,
OB West, OKW?
If the German HQs had received such warning of the
invasion, several hours earlier, would they have been
able to react in any effective way?
I doubt that such earlier warning would have affected
the overall outcome, but it could have affected the
course of the battle, on D-Day and afterward.
This also raises a question about the other major
opposed landings in Europe: HUSKY, AVALANCHE,
SHINGLE, and DRAGOON: which of _these_ invasions
could the Germans have detected in advance, and did
they in fact detect any of them in advance?
It should be noted that the Germans (and Italians,
for HUSKY) did not have very long to prepare against
HUSKY, AVALANCHE, or SHINGLE, and did not make the
defensive effort against DRAGOON that was made on
the Channel. Thus the Axis may not have resources
available to respond to warnings of these landings.
--
The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker.
http://originalvelvetrevolution.com
The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker.
http://originalvelvetrevolution.com