Discussion:
B-17 and B-24 in the 8th Air Force.
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Geoffrey Sinclair
2014-07-02 15:21:54 UTC
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Most of this data comes from the 8th Air Force April 1945 monthly
report, which includes 2 tables of effort, one for the B-17 and one
for the B-24, it notes casualty figures are not finalised as some
reports still have to come in from aircraft that landed in Europe,
not back in Britain.

For example it seems the total number of heavy bombers written
off after a combat sortie is 1,557 versus 1,562 in the April report.
In addition the sorties are for stated to be bombing missions only,
however the final 8th Air Force report has slightly higher sortie
figures, 330,866 versus 328,590 in the April report, so if a final
report can be found that splits B-17 and B-24 effort the numbers
will vary slightly from the ones presented here.

In terms of numbers the B-17 accounts for 68.9% of all 8th Air Force
heavy bomber sorties, 69.2% of such sorties that entered contested
airspace (credit sortie) and 70.2% of sorties reported as bombing
(effective sortie). The average B-17 bomb load for the war was
5,139.4 pounds versus 5,329.95 pounds for the B-24. It means the
B-17 dropped 69.45% of the bombs dropped by the 8th Air Force
heavy bombers.

As can be seen by the sortie percentages it seems the B-24 was
more vulnerable at about every stage to factors causing the sortie
to be abandoned. One reason seems to be a different use of
spare sorties, aircraft taking off used to replace any aborting
sorties, so formation left Britain at full strength. Some 4,621 B-17
sorties landed classified as "unused spares" versus 302 B-24,
which probably accounts for some of the later differences in
sortie abort rates.

Having said that some 91.4% of B-17 credit sorties were
classified as effective, versus 87.1% for the B-24. So while 68.9%
of heavy bomber sorties were B-17s they accounted for 61.95%
of mechanical, 58.7% of weather and 61.45% of other reason
aborted sorties. The B-17 was the more reliable as used by the
8th Air Force.

For 1944 and the first 4 months of 1945 the B-24 had an accident
rate on operations of 0.3 per 100 take offs and 1.01 accidents per
1,000 hours of non operational flying, versus 0.22 and 0.97
respectively for the B-17.

For the entire war 1.58% of B-17 credit sorties were Missing In
Action, versus 1.2% of B-24, partly this is the result of the losses in
1943 (nearly a quarter of total B-17 losses) but if you simply use
the 1944 results the loss figures actually increase, to 1.61% for the
B-17 and 1.3% for the B-24. So unless the B-24 was deliberately
and regularly being sent to less heavily defended targets the figures
indicate you were more likely to come home in a B-24.

Another interesting point about losses is for every 4.15 B-17
listed as missing another was written off after a combat sortie,
for the B-24 it is 3 missing for each write off.

The loss figures at first examination seem to be saying the
opposite to the anecdotal evidence, the figures are reporting
the B-24 was the more survivable, taking fewer losses and
making it back with heavier damage. Alternatively in the
damaged situation it could be the B-24 was more prone to
taking significant damage in a crash landing. The figures
indicate this was the case, 0.5% of B-17 credit sorties
were written off, versus 0.6% of B-24, some 20% more than
the B-17 but the B-17 missing to write off ratio is approaching
40% more than the B-24.

So short of a systematic bias in target selection the B-24 was
more likely to abandon the mission and more likely to crash but
more likely to bring you back, even when damaged, even when
accounting for it taking more damage in a crash landing.

The USAAF had 4 categories of damage,
A, repairable within 36 hours by the unit,
AC, more than 36 hours to repair and needing non unit resources
like a sub depot,
B requiring a full Repair Depot to fix
E write off.

For the war, using 293,025 credit sorties, there were 43,601
category A, 13,893 category AC, 593 category B and 1,557
category E, or 20.4 of all credit sorties came back damaged
enough to be classified as damaged. By year it was 27.4%
in 1942, 30.9% in 1943, 21.1% in 1944 and 15.6% in 1945.

The top 4 months were all in 1943 and are the only figures
above 40%, being 48.4% in January, 43.9% in July, 42.4%
in August and 41.7% in October. Being percentages these
figures are prone to big shifts when there are only a small
number of sorties, in 1943 there were 22,099 heavy bomber
credit sorties, versus 188,036 in 1944 and 81,912 in the
first 4 months of 1945. There were only 279 credit sorties
in January 1943, but over 2,000 for the other 3 months
listed above.

The night bombers consistently reported higher MIA figures
than the day bombers for 1945, as a percentage of sorties,
but it seems the number damaged, including to write off
stage, was around 2.8% of sorties despatched. Versus
15.6% for the 8th Air Force credit sorties, which were about
90% of airborne sorties. The extra maintenance requirements
from consistently having several times the number of damaged
aircraft would have been significant.

Geoffrey Sinclair
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Rich Rostrom
2014-07-02 17:32:19 UTC
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"Geoffrey Sinclair" <***@froggy.com.au> wrote:

Great information!
Post by Geoffrey Sinclair
The night bombers consistently reported higher MIA figures
than the day bombers for 1945...
Was this true for other periods?

Also, was there a change in one rate but not
the other?

A possible explanation could be that by 1945,
German day interceptors were defeated by
Allied escorts and roaming fighters, while
German nightfighters continued to operate
effectively.

Another factor could be the targets of the
raids. Day operations may have shifted to
more "ground support" missions against the
German front lines. Such missions would be
much less exposed to flak or interceptors,
and if forced down would land in friendly
territory - thus not MIA. (Or did MIA
include all fail to returns?)

Meanwhile, night raids would still be
against deep targets, still encounter
nightfighters and heavy flak, and be
at greater risk of landing in enemy
territory.
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Geoffrey Sinclair
2014-07-03 16:04:22 UTC
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Post by Rich Rostrom
Great information!
Post by Geoffrey Sinclair
The night bombers consistently reported higher MIA figures
than the day bombers for 1945...
Was this true for other periods?
From about October 1943 onwards they were in rough
harmony, then the day bombers were definitely having lower
loss rates from around April 1944 onwards.
Post by Rich Rostrom
Also, was there a change in one rate but not
the other?
US rates declined once all raids were escorted to and from
the target, that is October 1943 onwards, they declined
significantly after April 1944.

Using percentages of effective sorties, that is sorties that
bombed a target, the peak for 8th Air Force bomber losses
was in December 1942, 10.3%, showing the effects of
small numbers on percentages, 17 aircraft were lost that
month.

In the period April to October 1943 losses were between
4 and 8.8% per month. November 1943 to May 1944
losses varied between 3.6 and 4.3% a month, essentially
the worst months of this period were the same as the
best months earlier in 1943.
Post by Rich Rostrom
From May 1944 onwards there were only 3 months where
the losses were above 2%, June and September 1944 and
January 1945, lowest month was December 1944, 0.7%,
most figures were between 1 and 2%. If you use the the
number of airborne sorties instead of effective ones the
loss rates are an average of 82.6% the above figures.

Unfortunately calculating Bomber Command's night loss figures
is harder given things like mine laying and Mosquitoes, both
drove down overall loss rates, plus factoring out the day raids
from mid 1944 onwards.

For 4 engined bombers attacking Germany at night the loss
rates were 3 to 5% per month in 1942 and 1943, probably
measured as a percentage of sorties sent, not attacking, so
these underestimate losses versus the US figures above.
Against that is the overall figure will be lower once missions
to other countries are added.

In December 1943 a new peak of over 6% was reached, declining
to around 4.5% in May but hitting the all time peak of over 6.5% in
June 1944, again the effect of small numbers, losses then rapidly
decline to under 1% in October then stay within the 1 to 2% band
for the rest of the war, but usually higher than the US loss figures.
Post by Rich Rostrom
A possible explanation could be that by 1945,
German day interceptors were defeated by
Allied escorts and roaming fighters, while
German nightfighters continued to operate
effectively.
Yes, darkness was something that enabled the weaker side
a better chance to conduct operations.

However defeats when it comes to air forces are not that simple,
in 1945 the US reports in around 3.5 months of combat nearly
200 heavy bombers were lost to enemy fighters, so on the order
of 60 per month on average. In 1943 the heavy bomber losses
to fighters were 700, or around 60 per month. The difference
was in 1943 the losses were much more a factor of target
choice, raids to Germany produced heavier losses, so raids
to France had the effect of reducing overall casualty rates.

In 1943 there were 20,129 effective heavy bomber sorties,
in 1945 83,921, so each 1945 loss had a quarter the effect
of a 1943 one in percentage terms.
Post by Rich Rostrom
Another factor could be the targets of the
raids. Day operations may have shifted to
more "ground support" missions against the
German front lines. Such missions would be
much less exposed to flak or interceptors,
and if forced down would land in friendly
territory - thus not MIA. (Or did MIA
include all fail to returns?)
MIA are supposed to be that, failure to make friendly territory
so it should mean ditching within sight of England is an MIA,
not a Category E write off.

As for ground support from mid 1944 onwards that certainly
did happen, but Bomber Command did more than the 8th Air
Force, about 17.9% in 1944 and 14.4% in 1945 versus 5.7
and 5.2% respectively.

Against this is the fact missions to France were usually
safer, but in September 1944 the only targets left were
mainly in Germany.
Post by Rich Rostrom
Meanwhile, night raids would still be
against deep targets, still encounter
nightfighters and heavy flak, and be
at greater risk of landing in enemy
territory.
In fact the opposite occurred, it was understood Bomber Command
was close to locked out of many targets in Germany in the second
quarter of 1944 and from the end of the Battle of Berlin onwards
Harris was reluctant to strike deep into Germany, including
opposing the Dresden mission on those grounds, he clearly had
become more cautious. This is despite the dramatic drop in
loss rates in the second half of 1944.

In addition Bomber Command proved better at strikes in France,
and, with radio aids on the German border, could strike the Ruhr
area much better than the day bombers given the industrial haze
associated with the area. There was something of a change over
in the winter of 1944/45 given the amount of daylight hours but it
is clear the day bombers were perceived as having a greater
degree of freedom than the night ones, at least in the mind of
Harris.

Finally while it was not as important in 1945 damaged bombers
at night seem to have had a better chance of making it back to
friendly territory, being alone in daylight in enemy airspace is
much more hazardous.

In the period to 31 August 1944 some 2.7% of 8th Air Force B-17s
listed as lost to fighters made it back to allied territory, versus 6.4%
of those listed as lost to flak. For the period 1 September 1944 to
the end of the war the figures become 5.8% and 16.6%.

Geoffrey Sinclair
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David Wilma
2014-07-02 17:37:45 UTC
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In most areas the percentages are pretty close so although
the Fort has the statistical advantage, the Lib did almost
as good a job. The Lib had a lower ceiling so I wonder if
was easier prey for fighters and flak.

Talking to vets, the best plane was the one that brought
you home. Dad's sweetheart was the C-46, fraught with
flaws, but it brought him home.

I wonder if there is a record of the point where 8th Air
Force said, send of B-17s instead of B-24s or if they were
just happy to get what they could get.
Geoffrey Sinclair
2014-07-03 16:19:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by David Wilma
In most areas the percentages are pretty close so although
the Fort has the statistical advantage, the Lib did almost
as good a job. The Lib had a lower ceiling so I wonder if
was easier prey for fighters and flak.
Agreed that overall the differences are not great. Yes it
was understood the B-24 was easier to intercept because
it usually flew lower and it also gained a reputation of
being easier to shoot down, including for the Germans,
leading to claims of a bias in what German fighter pilots
preferred to attack.

However the figures from the overall results show, unless
there was some bias in target choice, the B-24 was the
one taking the lower losses.
Post by David Wilma
From other data it seems the Luftwaffe fighters consistently
claimed 2 B-17s for every 1 they shot down but possibly as
low as 1.5 B-24s for each one they shot down, certainly
under 2 to 1, indicating the B-24 may have been the easier
kill. In addition it was more dangerous for the crew to be in
a shot down B-24 than a B-17.
Post by David Wilma
Talking to vets, the best plane was the one that brought
you home. Dad's sweetheart was the C-46, fraught with
flaws, but it brought him home.
That seems quite understandable.
Post by David Wilma
I wonder if there is a record of the point where 8th Air
Force said, send of B-17s instead of B-24s or if they were
just happy to get what they could get.
The 8th had a preference for the B-17, it converted a number
of B-24 groups to B-17s to ensure the 3rd division was all
B-17 and a B24 group was returned to the US in 1944. The
conversions were officially done for the advantages of the
division only operating the one type of aircraft. Though it is
also reported the 8th would have preferred to be an all B-17
force.

In addition there is possible evidence that at times the
B-24 carried lighter loads than the accompanying B-17s
to enable them to fly that bit higher, but overall the B-24
carried the heavier loads.

Geoffrey Sinclair
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Alan Meyer
2014-07-02 17:47:19 UTC
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Post by Geoffrey Sinclair
Most of this data comes from the 8th Air Force April 1945 monthly
report, ...
These are interesting statistics. It looks like you've been very
careful in recording the numbers and in interpreting differences.

My impression from what you've written is that the differences between
the two bombers in survivability, maintainability, and ability to
complete a mission were measurable, but not necessarily significant. A
commander picking planes for a mission, assuming he had the liberty of
picking either type of plane, would do better to chose based on the
operational factors for each type rather than the other factors. Thus, for:

Highly defended targets:

B-17 had significantly higher service ceiling and more machine guns.

Far away targets:

B-24 had longer range and higher cruising speed.

Does that sound right to you?

Alan
Geoffrey Sinclair
2014-07-03 16:05:53 UTC
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Post by Geoffrey Sinclair
Most of this data comes from the 8th Air Force April 1945 monthly
report, ...
These are interesting statistics. It looks like you've been very careful
in recording the numbers and in interpreting differences.
My impression from what you've written is that the differences between the
two bombers in survivability, maintainability, and ability to complete a
mission were measurable, but not necessarily significant.
Correct, they do not appear to be significant on a day to day basis,
the differences appear over the course of the campaign.
A commander picking planes for a mission, assuming he had the liberty of
picking either type of plane, would do better to chose based on the
operational factors for each type rather than the other factors.
Yes.
B-17 had significantly higher service ceiling and more machine guns.
Certainly the ceiling would help against flak guns, against that the
higher the bomber the lower the accuracy. As for defensive fire
the difference is minor, both types had 10 machine guns in the
standard positions, 2 nose, 2 dorsal, 2 tail, 2 belly and 1 each
from windows in the aft fuselage, the B-17 often flew with 2 more
machine guns in the nose but no extra person to use them, plus
1 in the radio room, with a limited arc of fire.

The higher flying helps avoid interception, the slightly lower B-17
cruise speed does the opposite.
B-24 had longer range and higher cruising speed.
Does that sound right to you?
Yes but overall given the range and defences the 8th Air Force
faced things like longer range were not a major issue.

It made more difference in the Pacific where aircraft could be
flown for maximum range performance, the 8th needed more
"rapid" climbs, to form tight formations shortly after take off
given the defences.

Geoffrey Sinclair
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